Director’s Message

I would like to thank our sponsors for their generous support of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project. With their help we are able to provide timely information to our community and to hire and train undergraduate students in data collection and analysis. I would also like to thank our Board of Directors for their guidance and thoughtful advice. David Marshall, Executive Vice Chancellor at UCSB deserves special mention for supporting the EFP throughout the years.

Thanks to Emily Johnson, Associate Director of the EFP, who manages the day to day operations. Thomas Fullagar and Yuanzhe Liu, Ph.D. students in the Economics Department, oversee data collection, content and also work with the undergrad interns to produce this document.

Before the tariff craziness, the national and local economies were rolling merrily along. The labor market was strong, with the unemployment near all time lows. GDP had been running above its long term trend. The stock market set daily records along the way.

After the announcement of across the board tariffs with many countries facing tariff rates over 50%. The on-agan off-again tariff announcements from the administration have created an enormous amount of anxiety, even dread, in the markets.